Sunday, April 25, 2010

US Debt -- Private, Public, "Sovereign" and "Federal"

I am now beginning to understand the totality of recorded US debt, also known as "Credit Market Debt" and as "public and private debt".

Several previous posts ( here.and here) have briefly discussed various components of this $52 trillion US debt.  This post focuses on the "US federal government debt" component of the $52 trillion, and its connection with "sovereign debt", and budget deficits.  It is also the first in a number of posts to begin relating, in some detail,  US debt and US borrowing, to US consumption (GDP), US GDP growth, and US federal government budgets, and to compare those entities with similar entities in other parts of the world.

Figure 1 starts the ball rolling by breaking down the $52 trillion debt into its components, and their recent history, as reported by the Federal Flow of Funds report published March 2010.

Figure 1 US Public and Private Debt (Total Debt) by Component

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

US Credit Market Debt Analysis -- 1


In  earlier posts I suggested that the industrial world has entered a period where consistently exceeding a real GDP CAGR of about 2% will be very difficult.

The reasons for this malaise in the industrial world, I believe, are threefold:
  • The GDP growth rate has been slowing for several decades and that trend is now approaching 2% CAGR.
  • A very heavy current debt burden in almost all industrial countries which hinders future GDP growth
  • The increasing difficulty (costs) of acquiring the natural resources on which our industrial civilization depends
This post will focus on US debt.

Fig 1 below says that US citizens ended calendar 2009 owing about $52 trillion to each other and to foreigners.  What does that mean?


Figure 1 US Credit Market Debt by Sector
----------------