Notes on Debt Fueled GDP Growth

I am now convinced that the level of US debt -- see my post here -- will make it impossible for us (Americans) to rapidly attain a consistent real GDP CAGR greater than about 2%,  without massive government funding, and if "everything goes right". 

This post is a quick summary, with pictures, of some the data that convinces me.   Later posts will elaborate.

  Figure 1.  Total US Debt and Real GDP Annual Growth Rates with 4 year moving averages.
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US Consumption Growth and US Debt -- Magnitudes and Relationships

In an earlier posting, I said that the main US consumption growth inhibitors would probably be American debt, and the rising price of natural resources, particularly oil.

This post is my first in a planned series in which I take a detailed look at the debt situation in America and the world.  This first post looks at total US debt and compares it with US GDP growth over long time periods.

  Figure 1.  World Real Average Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) for Population, GDP/Capita and GDP.  History from deLong and US Census Bureau, Projection from ERS, USDA.  History is based on "1990 International Dollar", projection is based on Real $2005. 
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Consumption Growth Inhibitors

Chart1. Copied from US Budget (Obama Budget) FY2011 published Jan 2010

Heinberg -- Life After Growth

 Heinberg is one of the early "no growth" and "peak oil" evangelists.  I have posted his article below to give us all a sense of the thinking of one of the very influential early "no growth" thinkers.